NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4a28f484794aca01a2186272083c0047dfef35747fde23fca5164fcccb527f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 7,400$3,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 3,931$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.51 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 3,214$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.25 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 3,205$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.66 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 2,194$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.31 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Over | 53c | 1,079$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 53c | 528$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 462.63$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.94 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 411.9$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.19 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 48c | 358$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 49c | 342.65$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.75 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 273.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 52c | 146.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Over | 52c | 26.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Under | 48c | 26.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Vikings won
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Vikings won
- Ravens vs. VikingsRavens won
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.