NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x933750789563e67adef8f325252308f4eaaa981b144bc0cfbf373cf3fef14b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0549…c052backed Vikings | 50c | 21,355$10,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,677.54 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Ravens | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Vikings | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Ravens | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Ravens | 49c | 9,951$4,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,074.92 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Vikings | 51c | 7,672$3,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,912.72 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Ravens | 50c | 6,156$3,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,077.99 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ravens | 50c | 4,133$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.16 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Vikings | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Ravens | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Vikings | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Ravens | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Vikings | 50c | 1,626$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.41 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Ravens | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Vikings | 50c | 955.78$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.89 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Vikings | 50c | 901.43$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.32 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vikings | 51c | 713.71$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.99 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Ravens | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Vikings | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Ravens | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…6632backed Vikings | 52c | 239.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Ravens | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Ravens | 49c | 195.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Ravens | 51c | 173.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Ravens | 47c | 145$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ravens | 47c | 117$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Ravens | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Vikings | 48c | 105.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Vikings | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…2d86backed Ravens | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Ravens | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Vikings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Ravens | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Ravens | 50c | 65.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Vikings | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed Vikings | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Ravens | 50c | 49.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Vikings | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…5a2fbacked Ravens | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Vikings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Ravens | 50c | 30.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Vikings | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Vikings | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ravens | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Vikings | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Vikings won
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Vikings won
- Ravens vs. VikingsRavens won
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.