WNBA · resolved market
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8faa4a180a7aae622bdff0e6712e4a460b7260182aaa5dbb5eb41e5e6f1e67f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Libertyof New York Liberty, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Washington Mystics | 43c | 1,279$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.09 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed New York Liberty | 56c | 1,254$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.87 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty | 64c | 872.77$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.9 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Washington Mystics | 34c | 449.65$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Mystics | 42c | 312.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Washington Mystics | 39c | 257.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked New York Liberty | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked New York Liberty | 57c | 140.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Liberty | 58c | 114.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Washington Mystics | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Liberty | 61c | 69.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Washington Mystics | 41c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…6e54backed New York Liberty | 56c | 40.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…245abacked Washington Mystics | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed New York Liberty | 56c | 25.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)this page
- Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5)New York Liberty won
- Washington Mystics vs. New York LibertyNew York Liberty won
- Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.