World Politics · resolved market
Will Han Duck-soo endorse PPP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fb8e4b85196c42ad690c7d39df0c139b409782aaa0f60d0bb616e3d0a42f952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 7c | 9,368$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.31 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed Yes | 77c | 5,582$4,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.68 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 4c | 3,333$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,188.57 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 6c | 3,260$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +647.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,288$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…3e4ebacked Yes | 3c | 817.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 12c | 806$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 12c | 806$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 31c | 677$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 240.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.72 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 64c | 215.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 59c | 211$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed Yes | 60c | 147.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 147.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 49c | 99.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 58c | 80.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d63…12c8backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…2992backed Yes | 34c | 58.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 55c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…672abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.