Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc3c3d786c99e0f1c5629f10895bcb9a2e977c4df38e81280d33b443786840d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Purdue Boilermakers, Michigan State Spartans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 5,648$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.61 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…905bbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 55c | 5,582$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 1,003$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.1 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 247.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 184.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Purdue Boilermakers | 54c | 183.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 118.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Purdue Boilermakers | 50c | 113.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Purdue Boilermakers | 56c | 90.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 44c | 71.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 66.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 45.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed Purdue Boilermakers | 72c | 34.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-6.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue BoilermakersMichigan State Spartans won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.