NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9030178e291e2c98367c9f04890fe45fd7c7db04f82f8aa67b51c62d4e5ae8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Jaguars, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 45c | 18,170$8,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,176.35 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Texans | 55c | 12,287$6,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,529.06 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Texans | 55c | 9,151$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,150.79 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars | 46c | 5,125$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.74 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Texans | 52c | 3,642$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.93 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jaguars | 48c | 3,034$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.83 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texans | 53c | 604.02$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.89 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…a903backed Texans | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Texans | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Jaguars | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Texans | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Texans | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jaguars | 48c | 81.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Texans | 54c | 62.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe7…5fb9backed Texans | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texans | 50c | 34.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jaguars | 48c | 33.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Texans | 52c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jaguars | 40c | 26.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jaguars | 48c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Texans | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Texans | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-0.5)Jaguars won
- Jaguars vs. TexansTexans won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 17.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 18.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.