NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b2389218004a3369f2fdb2fcfc4e524eb69340b49a4381e8407a4a860b4863
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Over | 52c | 14,103$7,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,769.5 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 49c | 10,074$4,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,936.94 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 51c | 9,737$4,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,770.99 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 7,111$3,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,485.73 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 5,885$2,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883.91 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 51c | 4,901$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 3,456$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.66 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.84 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 2,789$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.39 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 2,227$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.79 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,001$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.12 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 784.79$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.8 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 510$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 46c | 451.09$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa501…9f0fbacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ee…5800backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 255.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…d081backed Under | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…2cbdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 52c | 193.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Over | 57c | 188.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 51c | 138.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…8764backed Over | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…3b65backed Under | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 49c | 99.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…aed1backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…7777backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 72.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…ec13backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…4806backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 37.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-0.5)Jaguars won
- Jaguars vs. TexansTexans won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 17.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 18.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.