NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f6ca61163ed7a502b703a2238dba97e2751393e491fbbaecef89e0d7b07728
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Texans | 50c | 10,028$5,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,014.33 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jaguars | 50c | 4,605$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.5 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jaguars | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 50c | 2,687$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Jaguars | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Jaguars | 57c | 882.21$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 50c | 614.41$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Texans | 50c | 600.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.22 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Texans | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Texans | 48c | 193.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jaguars | 51c | 122.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Jaguars | 53c | 113.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Texans | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Jaguars | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Texans | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Texans | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…806fbacked Texans | 48c | 30.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Jaguars | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Texans | 47c | 25.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…0369backed Texans | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Jaguars | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…433fbacked Texans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-0.5)Jaguars won
- Jaguars vs. TexansTexans won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 17.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 18.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Texans: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.