Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90433969095d7a274a95c0f8a959dbac705f31baae7248f3445df2de72405e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 492.52$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 356.23$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 42c | 335.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 293.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.04 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 68c | 262.14$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 258.65$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 244.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 50c | 173.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 170.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 45c | 160.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 11c | 150.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 42c | 140.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 56c | 136.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 123.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 103.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 99.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 52c | 98.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 69c | 96.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 64c | 93.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 41c | 92.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 67c | 87.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 45c | 72.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 36c | 58.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 46c | 57.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 68c | 56.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 51c | 55.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 44c | 53.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 52.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 48.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 48.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 46.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 44.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 56c | 42.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 47c | 40.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 59c | 38.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 43c | 37.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…1c0fbacked Yes | 40c | 34.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 63c | 33.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 43c | 33.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 43c | 32.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 40c | 31.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 60c | 31.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 43c | 29.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 28.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 42c | 28.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 41c | 27.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 49c | 27.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 44c | 25.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 50c | 24.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed No | 60c | 24.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 59c | 22.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 62c | 17.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed No | 58c | 17.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 71c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 60c | 16.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.