Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5959e8e4cd3e69955409b949f18f0325745c5ff205e4e689e543623e73d9b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7704…e9b1backed Yes | 0c | 5,528$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f1…cd19backed Yes | 10c | 1,310$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 48c | 1,153$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.08 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 43c | 672.24$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.75 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 573.54$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 47c | 487.08$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.9 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 421.02$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 67c | 397.06$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.83 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 357$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 23c | 348.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.38 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 21c | 302.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 58c | 298.12$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 293.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 68c | 284.69$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 279.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 49c | 272.39$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed Yes | 58c | 247.95$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 69c | 195.59$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 186.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 44c | 175.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 23c | 166.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 21c | 159.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 138.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 136.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 135.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 124.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 39c | 119.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 107.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 19c | 107.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 37c | 106.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 48c | 99.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 93.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 50c | 93.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 91.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 21c | 87.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 29c | 86.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 83.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39f5…d1d7backed Yes | 20c | 81.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 54c | 77.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 45c | 75.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 59c | 74.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 42c | 68.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 68.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 67.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 22c | 66.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 65.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 64.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 25c | 63.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 31c | 54.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 50c | 53.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked No | 32c | 52.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 32c | 52.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 50.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 48c | 49.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 48c | 49.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 48.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 29c | 48.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 47c | 46.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 45.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 52c | 43.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 67c | 41.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 66c | 38.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 29c | 37.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 54c | 36.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 71c | 35.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 72c | 33.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 51c | 33.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 33.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 78c | 32.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 31.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 50c | 27.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…5e55backed No | 63c | 26.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 26.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 53c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 58c | 24.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 22.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.