Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904ffa256ad48ea514799ebac788ff80d8b6eac8057eb9970e6321c2e5b4d82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 36c | 9,597$3,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,094.36 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 5,230$3,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,337.56 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 4,168$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.59 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 64c | 3,118$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.54 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 38c | 2,526$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.32 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.8 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 62c | 1,290$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 62c | 725.81$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 63c | 600$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 47c | 580$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 36c | 499.57$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.72 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 19c | 480.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.47 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 32c | 405.23$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.37 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 37c | 384.24$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 62c | 350$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 41c | 331$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 63c | 257$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 244$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 63c | 243$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 55c | 215.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 26c | 205$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 63c | 164.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 63c | 164.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 56c | 158.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 63c | 155$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 63c | 152.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 7c | 144.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 53c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 59c | 90.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 63c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 64.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 58.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 63c | 50.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 38c | 49.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 38c | 49.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 38c | 49.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 64c | 42.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…6a12backed Under | 53c | 37.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…fcbdbacked Under | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 53c | 31.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 64c | 31.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 36c | 28.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 63c | 21.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 59c | 21.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Under | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 63c | 16.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.