Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64f91e9068b8e02ccd28ec6481c0794698b15db863d6c72222fe5e664d612fb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 5,797$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898.48 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 2,718$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.14 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 60c | 2,593$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.61 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 2,539$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.18 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 59c | 1,352$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.63 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 40c | 654.67$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.3 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 53c | 636.35$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.9 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 41c | 604.84$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.44 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 488.13$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.57 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 461.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over | 77c | 311.97$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 303.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 51c | 299.7$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 41c | 276.19$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 20c | 225.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 59c | 220.19$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 178.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 31c | 161.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 77c | 129$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 41c | 108.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 54c | 103.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 43c | 92.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…4247backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…6845backed Over | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 66.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 25c | 60.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 44c | 60.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Over | 56c | 57.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 63c | 55.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 50c | 53.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 56c | 52.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 64c | 49.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 41c | 47.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 59c | 42.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 43c | 40.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 39.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Over | 79c | 37.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 58c | 33.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…7c24backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 45c | 28.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 43c | 25.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 55c | 23.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 64c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Over | 79c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 79c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.