Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90553c05b95e2584b0fac0513e13ebefc334ea2e6d3d6b88cd915a71a1a930a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tien | 2c | 1,094$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Zverev | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 620 | 61.9%384 W · 236 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tien | 38c | 515.74$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Tien | 42c | 509$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.78 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Zverev | 58c | 459.32$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Tien | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zverev | 70c | 109.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Tien | 39c | 108$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Tien | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…fe09backed Zverev | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Zverev | 59c | 51.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Tien | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…8475backed Tien | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Tien | 45c | 45.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Tien | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Zverev | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Tien | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked Tien | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Tien | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Tien | 43c | 32.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Tien | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Zverev | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Zverev | 63c | 27.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 176 | 62.5%110 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Zverev | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Zverev | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Zverev | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Zverev | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Zverev | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Zverev | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Zverev | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Zverev | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Zverev | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Tienthis page
- Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner TienZverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Zverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5)Tien won
- Zverev vs. Tien: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Zverev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.