Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb3aa977f701afca0fe24c8d4f0a2c343c9e4deb466032c222dbd589d0080942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Zverev, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zverev | 26c | 6,734$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.35 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Tien | 75c | 5,000$3,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.48 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Zverev | 27c | 1,382$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.42 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Tien | 74c | 1,129$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.82 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Zverev | 29c | 1,112$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Tien | 71c | 1,096$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.78 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Tien | 74c | 810.81$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 386 | 52.3%202 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…4fa1backed Tien | 71c | 599.95$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Zverev | 29c | 499.66$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Tien | 73c | 411.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Tien | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Zverev | 25c | 345.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Tien | 73c | 274.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Tien | 64c | 274.44$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Tien | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Zverev | 52c | 254.37$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 186 | 36%67 W · 119 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Zverev | 31c | 179.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Zverev | 25c | 154.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfebd…e5a1backed Tien | 73c | 137.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…0d24backed Tien | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Tien | 63c | 72.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Tien | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…24bebacked Zverev | 30c | 66.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Zverev | 28c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…a4e0backed Zverev | 25c | 43.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tien | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Zverev | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Tien | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87a…2ee0backed Tien | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5)this page
- Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner TienZverev won
- Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs TienZverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Zverev won
- Zverev vs. Tien: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Zverev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.