Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x499abdca5a73e6fbf58310d20695bf5fb9be57d031197bc41817f4ec71192b95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tien | 44c | 3,623$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.02 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Zverev | 55c | 1,823$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.17 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Zverev | 75c | 1,380$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.34 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tien | 46c | 1,090$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.32 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Zverev | 53c | 939.6$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.6 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Tien | 24c | 594.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Zverev | 54c | 462.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.53 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Zverev | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…8bb4backed Zverev | 53c | 362.75$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Zverev | 54c | 324.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…f5fcbacked Zverev | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Tien | 25c | 204$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Zverev | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Tien | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Zverev | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Zverev | 55c | 162.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Tien | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Tien | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Zverev | 55c | 130.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Tien | 30c | 117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Tien | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Zverev | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Zverev | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Tien | 49c | 73.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Zverev | 54c | 72.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Zverev | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 348 | 51.1%178 W · 170 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Tien | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…5a4fbacked Tien | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Tien | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…3398backed Zverev | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Zverev | 51c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Zverev | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…66f3backed Zverev | 54c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed Tien | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)this page
- Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner TienZverev won
- Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs TienZverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5)Tien won
- Zverev vs. Tien: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Zverev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.