Premier League · resolved market
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9062290a9e0252553c2ee76db6dcd039e5e1020a7e5a24885bd3e2a636ba6278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bdc…b5e9backed Over | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 14c | 1,249$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Over | 15c | 659.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 28c | 609.73$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 24c | 280$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 14c | 273.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 14c | 166.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ff…9aaabacked Over | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383b…93c2backed Over | 9c | 116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 9c | 112.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 27c | 55.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.