Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969cbfb2ca956269974dfe6040eea55d98874d19c4cdbf03ea80364e7ae44f3a

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,605 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x05e3…4b87backed Under	72c	4,194$3,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,019.44	126	49.2%62 W · 64 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	66c	4,005$2,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,656.35	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over	29c	3,218$933 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,285.06	346	28.6%99 W · 247 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	71c	2,867$2,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,023.55	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Over	29c	2,759$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,959.17	194	26.3%51 W · 143 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	239	26.4%63 W · 176 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	57c	1,884$1,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,078.19	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Over	42c	1,700$714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$986	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under	72c	1,389$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-7.9wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbfc…5cfabacked Under	1c	1,027$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	43c	1,006$433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.85	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Over	27c	1,000$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+3.1wins	+0.24per pick	30cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over	22c	898.33$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$697.87	111	25.2%28 W · 83 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Over	43c	750.63$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.63	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Over	28c	700$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over	29c	689.66$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.66	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+7.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	59c	573.55$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.8	966	45.4%439 W · 527 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	78c	474.38$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.1	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Under	3c	460.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+76.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over	28c	451.77$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.27	222	29.3%65 W · 157 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Under	77c	400$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	141	66.7%94 W · 47 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	72c	399.99$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	28c	368$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.96	212	53.8%114 W · 98 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Over	28c	357.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.14	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over	29c	344.83$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.83	99	29.3%29 W · 70 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdd…dc4cbacked Over	50c	328$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+33%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under	59c	311.86$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	86	55.8%48 W · 38 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57c6…fde6backed Over	39c	275.93$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.35	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00fa…9af5backed Under	75c	223.04$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.21	95	61.1%58 W · 37 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b90…c258backed Under	60c	220$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.6	41	73.2%30 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	28c	214.28$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.28	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Under	73c	204.38$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+18%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Over	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over	29c	200$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142	258	36%93 W · 165 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaffc…fab4backed Over	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f7c…e75cbacked Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Over	27c	185.19$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.19	89	27%24 W · 65 L	-11.9wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	24c	178.83$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.91	306	45.8%140 W · 166 L	-11.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc34…799dbacked Over	28c	178.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	29c	177$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.71	198	53%105 W · 93 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ff…9aaabacked Over	29c	172.41$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.41	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Over	47c	147.6$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.23	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	30c	144.67$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.62	432	41.9%181 W · 251 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	28c	142.86$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.86	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b02…ae87backed Under	72c	138.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Over	42c	134$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.25	241	46.1%111 W · 130 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	44c	130$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.2	457	51.2%234 W · 223 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	71c	129.24$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.76	524	54.2%284 W · 240 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1110…0123backed Over	43c	123.16$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.2	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	42c	112.28$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.15	201	43.8%88 W · 113 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	37c	108.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.92	203	36.9%75 W · 128 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Over	52c	107.92$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.8	272	27.9%76 W · 196 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	71c	103.99$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	722	49.9%360 W · 362 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7676…ada4backed Over	29c	103.45$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.45	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+8.1wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3771…54b3backed Over	29c	100$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1edf…2392backed Over	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Over	29c	100$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd6e2…c751backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	52	63.5%33 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4f…65babacked Over	47c	99.63$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.93	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over	37c	94.59$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.59	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Over	29c	87.53$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.15	114	60.5%69 W · 45 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	29c	86.21$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.21	144	31.9%46 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over	39c	83.87$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.47	159	49.1%78 W · 81 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over	36c	74$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.28	317	47.6%151 W · 166 L	-14.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Over	46c	69.99$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	142	58.5%83 W · 59 L	+12.7wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+20%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	29c	68.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.97	232	20.7%48 W · 184 L	-12.5wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Under	59c	67.2$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.65	84	44%37 W · 47 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d37…5b73backed Under	57c	59.65$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under	55c	57.63$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.57	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over	29c	51.72$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	85	36.5%31 W · 54 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afa…204abacked Over	45c	44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	60c	41.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.18	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x844b…2580backed Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	29c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.4	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91b5…4a34backed Under	61c	36.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.74	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcbd…191dbacked Over	47c	36.17$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.17	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+39%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e4d…6103backed Over	33c	35$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.6	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+76.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over	45c	34.23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+10.8wins	+0.17per pick	46cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Under	70c	30.14$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed Under	67c	25.46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x646c…3210backed Under	60c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-4.3wins	-0.20per pick	49cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	50c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.45	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bb1…f87dbacked Over	47c	23.04$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.21	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	71c	21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,615	53%856 W · 759 L	+33.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c0…c187backed Under	74c	17.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+24%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa597…7e14backed Under	76c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	77cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5this page
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event