Premier League · resolved market
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4cf9b3a177e5680b3cc3e334452b4657daf4552f4dd90965826ee9e29f0594b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 13,000$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,228.85 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 76c | 4,655$3,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.01 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 75c | 3,200$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 75c | 2,606$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.65 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b4…827fbacked Over | 77c | 1,955$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 1,907$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.05 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 23c | 1,848$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.34 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 75c | 1,660$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 1,658$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.27 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Over | 75c | 1,581$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.14 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7c…e75cbacked Over | 75c | 1,328$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 79c | 1,209$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.75 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 23c | 1,201$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.32 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 75c | 951$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 23c | 657.59$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.31 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 26c | 612$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 2c | 575.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Over | 73c | 547.18$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 24c | 525.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 413.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 74c | 248.05$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 67c | 226.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Over | 76c | 154.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 71c | 146.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 70c | 142.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 75c | 138.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…0615backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc8…6875backed Under | 15c | 116.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda4…d5dbbacked Over | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 74c | 93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 64c | 81.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 32c | 66.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…00d1backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Over | 75c | 44.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 26c | 41.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 74c | 36.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb1…f87dbacked Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Over | 68c | 32.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +10.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…79d1backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…1822backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…d0eabacked Over | 75c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711f…f549backed Over | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f10…0f86backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…8a68backed Over | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…fef9backed Over | 63c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…d3cfbacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…8b55backed Over | 76c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Over | 76c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.