Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x906aca00f5d020fd651495834b85c082caf9a8950e627e1db0b0b5d6fca3de7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 31c | 409.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 390.1$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 298.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 243.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 66c | 203.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 196.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 157.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 154.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 48c | 129.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 41c | 124.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 118.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 100.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 82.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 49c | 81.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 45c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed No | 64c | 78.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 78.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 23c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 65.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 63.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 51.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 30c | 50.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 40c | 46.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 40c | 44.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 46c | 43.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 40c | 43.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 39.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 68c | 39.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 64c | 37.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 52c | 36.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 32c | 35.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 42c | 33.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 58c | 33.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 70c | 33.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 44c | 32.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…ba7ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…746cbacked Yes | 46c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed Yes | 42c | 28.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 61c | 25.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 61c | 21.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 21.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 76c | 21.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 79c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 80c | 18.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 79c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.