Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20aaad042b39a7dff516864261061d1811a0939dca4d238bc5d44453adfdff35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 1c | 1,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 48c | 618.06$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.14 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 20c | 326.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 278.46$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 273.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 56c | 196.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 26c | 179.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 31c | 161.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 64c | 117.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 115.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 67c | 104.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 17c | 103.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 102.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 73.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 73.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 70.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 63.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 55.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 51.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 49.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…746cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 34.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 63c | 31.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc28…9a83backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 37c | 27.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 60c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 61c | 22.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e47…bdd1backed No | 68c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 67c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.