Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x906cab5afe5cd099a9c084e2785c7662788400606b32ae7141d05ced628b160b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fd1…8257backed No | 74c | 5,005$3,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,286$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 11c | 692.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 7c | 620$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 76c | 563.55$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 79c | 495.18$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 381.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 177$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 171$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 24c | 166.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 121.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 75c | 114.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…0dfebacked Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 75c | 94.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 26c | 91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 53.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…2b64backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 70c | 49.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 48.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.