Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb136f1b4efae640a11a872aff708048610afaa556191ebd5847d7a95060acc65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 13c | 9,526$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.44 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 15c | 5,931$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 13c | 3,084$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 73c | 2,158$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,077$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.67 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 28c | 1,072$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.61 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 17c | 558.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 57c | 545.49$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 16c | 542.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 50c | 482.3$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.14 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 14c | 445.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 73c | 430.11$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.98 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Yes | 27c | 430.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 414.78$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.36 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 318$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 14c | 302.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…decabacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…ad96backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 28c | 257.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 27c | 248.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 60c | 219.86$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 32c | 196.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…ed05backed No | 73c | 193$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 16c | 142.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2254backed No | 17c | 135.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…11bebacked No | 10c | 129.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Yes | 51c | 111.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…f34ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 73c | 97.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a9a2backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 58c | 79.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Yes | 35c | 61.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +260.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 73c | 49.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 73c | 48.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 44.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…b0b7backed Yes | 75c | 42.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 26c | 39.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked Yes | 53c | 29.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…c607backed No | 74c | 16.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.