Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908858c2105c1b36e102802c8976d81c7f1164e11d5fb1530e0b1640d33b5cbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,279$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 743.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 703.83$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 554$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 311.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 262.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 246.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 26c | 220.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 201$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 13c | 171.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 788 | 36.5%288 W · 500 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 168.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 167.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1,144 | 24.7%283 W · 861 L | +26.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 136.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 10c | 121.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 119.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 27c | 101.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 87.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 79.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 71.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 71.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 500 | 35.8%179 W · 321 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 61.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 58.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,706 | 60.7%1,035 W · 671 L | -23.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…5576backed No | 73c | 54.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 53.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 52.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 27c | 51.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 40.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 73c | 40.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 38.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 878 | 60.6%532 W · 346 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 653 | 58.8%384 W · 269 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 73c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 281 | 69.4%195 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.