MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90b7a74acdebab51f757a34e63b41c70bfe071ea643e7ae88731f45e31b14373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 46c | 1,731$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.89 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 47c | 1,616$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.52 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.83 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 1,035$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.7 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 53c | 951$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.03 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 25c | 919$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 710.71$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.78 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 54c | 498$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.92 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 54c | 490$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 450$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 53c | 315$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 54c | 268.52$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 248.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 47c | 211.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 200.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Under | 47c | 151.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 39c | 128.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 63c | 128.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 61c | 112.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…7143backed Under | 79c | 109.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 55c | 70.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 46c | 56.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 54c | 55.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 48c | 42.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 46c | 36.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 46c | 27.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked Over | 54c | 25.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 54c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.