MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116b012769a839b69f3c8bcf44b8ad939d109a2e3b9b06ee4a2fdd20c870dadf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 2,246$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed New York Mets | 66c | 1,271$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.98 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets | 64c | 945$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 747.44$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 64c | 638.98$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 64c | 519.4$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 66c | 450.43$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 394.44$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 68c | 357$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 70c | 327.71$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked New York Mets | 66c | 324.25$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 75c | 316.34$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 281.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 231.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5b…350abacked New York Mets | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 64c | 206.35$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 71c | 184.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed New York Mets | 67c | 147.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…82cfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 129.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets | 65c | 126.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 111.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked New York Mets | 72c | 89.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 76.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Mets | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 62.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 62.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…5b1ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 58.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Mets | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 48.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 38.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 74c | 21.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…2eb0backed New York Mets | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Mets | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed New York Mets | 73c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.