TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf426…e665backed Maple Leafs37c50,211$18,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,632.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb22…f95bbacked Lightning63c50,211$31,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,632.9340%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Maple Leafs41c4,939$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,914.0613754%74 W · 63 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning59c4,362$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.861,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Maple Leafs36c3,346$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.6916645.8%76 W · 90 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Maple Leafs38c3,000$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.9924546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning60c2,773$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.821,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs39c2,509$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.381,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs38c2,400$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.951,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Lightning63c2,379$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.7911145.9%51 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Maple Leafs39c2,148$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.0330549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf414…cd58backed Maple Leafs36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning32c1,962$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.663,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Maple Leafs60c1,643$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.471,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Maple Leafs37c1,640$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.5313845.7%63 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4384…bb5ebacked Maple Leafs39c1,635$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b2…f8d4backed Lightning62c1,626$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.891060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4eb…161fbacked Maple Leafs38c1,624$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.881266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc08…c6d1backed Lightning61c1,620$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2a…ca37backed Lightning62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015261.8%94 W · 58 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning63c1,600$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00883652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Lightning59c1,582$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.249750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Lightning7c1,565$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5510127.7%28 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b02…e4e8backed Lightning63c1,551$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5293…2f35backed Lightning63c1,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.912272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+43.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Lightning64c1,319$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.0710546.7%49 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs57c1,136$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.91,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning62c1,132$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.0292848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning61c1,112$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.6484051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Lightning45c1,078$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.229747.4%46 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd837…ba4abacked Maple Leafs37c1,050$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Lightning37c1,000$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.37634.2%26 W · 50 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Maple Leafs38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.3185148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Maple Leafs38c899.91$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.9420649.5%102 W · 104 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x684a…1b69backed Maple Leafs40c846.5$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2b8…b745backed Maple Leafs37c820$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.62347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Lightning63c820$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.68536.5%31 W · 54 L-11.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Lightning61c750$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.527958.8%164 W · 115 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning62c615.92$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.3466951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc20c…fa4bbacked Lightning57c600$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3424650%23 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e22…5bfbbacked Maple Leafs69c578.57$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick70cpaid-47.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ed0…77f7backed Maple Leafs47c524.93$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.944438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f5…84bcbacked Maple Leafs40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdf1…e491backed Maple Leafs40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Maple Leafs36c499.87$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9249351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…c712backed Maple Leafs40c476.37$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.3338744.2%171 W · 216 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2644…daecbacked Lightning64c465.61$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-62.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe278…21d6backed Maple Leafs37c465$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Lightning61c440$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.49064.4%58 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Maple Leafs68c410.56$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.385858.6%34 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-15.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Maple Leafs37c409.84$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.210627.4%29 W · 77 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x745c…40d9backed Lightning62c402.16$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Maple Leafs38c352.93$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.826850%34 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee5…208cbacked Lightning63c333.33$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c4…a40abacked Lightning64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked Maple Leafs67c301.11$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.372650%13 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7108…0252backed Lightning64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33b…4e00backed Maple Leafs37c297.3$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.315246.7%71 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Maple Leafs45c287.46$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0258467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6ffd…e62cbacked Lightning64c275.45$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Maple Leafs41c271.41$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.414045%18 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce02…f887backed Maple Leafs39c271.38$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.716956.5%39 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f6f…ea97backed Maple Leafs37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.27966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Maple Leafs37c266.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0237738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63d8…b86abacked Lightning64c262.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6fd…fdfebacked Maple Leafs39c262$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.82825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb7e…0be4backed Lightning63c253.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick61cpaid-54.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maple Leafs40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Maple Leafs40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15012556.8%71 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6e…2000backed Maple Leafs45c246.67$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…45e8backed Lightning64c233.17$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.231250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Maple Leafs39c224.85$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.168932.6%29 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning60c222$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.250857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb92c…da18backed Maple Leafs62c202$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6043…767bbacked Maple Leafs38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Maple Leafs39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12260042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8896…7d78backed Lightning63c190.48$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207071.4%50 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe704…c3febacked Lightning58c182$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b7…dc48backed Maple Leafs42c179.46$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x308d…2abcbacked Lightning61c171.12$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e5…a94fbacked Lightning64c165$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd377…a0a5backed Maple Leafs71c160$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.42552%13 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Maple Leafs37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.526547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36db…9fd7backed Maple Leafs57c146.39$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2411751.3%60 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea0…0467backed Maple Leafs37c145.7$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.792642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a65…e883backed Maple Leafs69c145.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.491353.8%7 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick69cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning49c143.56$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5357238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Maple Leafs38c137.65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3429748.8%145 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b95…8affbacked Maple Leafs38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.586363.5%40 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58e5…0fa4backed Maple Leafs39c130$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.31553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Maple Leafs40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67f…a3b2backed Maple Leafs40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2f…654abacked Lightning58c116$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28aa…6172backed Maple Leafs42c116$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3706…9347backed Maple Leafs42c111$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…3153backed Lightning58c111$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…845bbacked Lightning58c108$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1da…4aa1backed Maple Leafs42c108$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…9ebabacked Lightning58c107$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8a…9534backed Maple Leafs42c107$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.