Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90d5fd91c6d518a8232f355a00dacfc7a082fc6af902eeeef1f8b35d2fda1619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Otterof Conviction, Blue Otter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed Conviction | 68c | 598.2$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.12 | 391 | 62.7%245 W · 146 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Blue Otter | 30c | 385$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 1,047 | 50.3%527 W · 520 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Conviction | 47c | 303.56$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 354 | 43.2%153 W · 201 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Blue Otter | 53c | 298.56$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.32 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Blue Otter | 51c | 248.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 294 | 47.6%140 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Blue Otter | 52c | 192.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 524 | 41%215 W · 309 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Conviction | 48c | 124.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 356 | 42.4%151 W · 205 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Blue Otter | 48c | 124.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…dc55backed Conviction | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Blue Otter | 54c | 88.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 447 | 45.2%202 W · 245 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Blue Otter | 33c | 79.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 556 | 28.6%159 W · 397 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked Conviction | 48c | 73.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 692 | 47%325 W · 367 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…3e39backed Conviction | 47c | 50.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Conviction | 50c | 41.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…c6d9backed Conviction | 65c | 29.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Conviction | 51c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Blue Otter | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…a5babacked Conviction | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Last Chance QualifierConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 WinnerConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 2 WinnerBlue Otter won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.