Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x696abfeaf2a3e1389ce45eab3d43893805789993485207445233f6cd59f7a7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Convictionof Conviction, Blue Otter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Blue Otter | 34c | 3,764$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.61 | 560 | 34.8%195 W · 365 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Blue Otter | 27c | 3,023$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.91 | 1,852 | 39.8%738 W · 1,114 L | -64.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Blue Otter | 4c | 2,075$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 1,143 | 38.8%444 W · 699 L | -46.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Blue Otter | 28c | 1,936$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.46 | 1,965 | 48.4%951 W · 1,014 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Conviction | 73c | 1,652$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.96 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Conviction | 69c | 1,523$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.6 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…d4d1backed Conviction | 72c | 1,397$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.76 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ca…f644backed Conviction | 73c | 1,369$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.31 | 248 | 58.1%144 W · 104 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed Conviction | 76c | 1,300$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 400 | 63%252 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…fa05backed Conviction | 68c | 1,025$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.07 | 1,223 | 58.1%710 W · 513 L | +43.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0587…c40bbacked Blue Otter | 14c | 985.53$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 170 | 45.9%78 W · 92 L | +16.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f1…5729backed Conviction | 69c | 967.62$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 163 | 62.6%102 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Blue Otter | 32c | 947.99$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.27 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Conviction | 72c | 758.55$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.61 | 621 | 58.8%365 W · 256 L | +32.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Blue Otter | 24c | 755.93$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.72 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Blue Otter | 22c | 735$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 2,237 | 33.3%745 W · 1,492 L | -71.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Conviction | 70c | 710.62$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.62 | 1,675 | 59.3%993 W · 682 L | +96.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Conviction | 71c | 694.44$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.39 | 594 | 59.1%351 W · 243 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Blue Otter | 29c | 490.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 340 | 40.6%138 W · 202 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Blue Otter | 22c | 441.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 2,020 | 30.5%617 W · 1,403 L | -172.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…6815backed Blue Otter | 34c | 438.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…a408backed Conviction | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 366 | 52.5%192 W · 174 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Conviction | 67c | 354.8$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Blue Otter | 32c | 311.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 46.7%93 W · 106 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Blue Otter | 27c | 279.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 1,085 | 46.2%501 W · 584 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Conviction | 68c | 255.65$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Blue Otter | 34c | 206.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 527 | 41.2%217 W · 310 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Blue Otter | 33c | 182.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…39cebacked Conviction | 70c | 179.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Conviction | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 356 | 42.4%151 W · 205 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…a468backed Conviction | 68c | 164.35$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Blue Otter | 27c | 160.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 977 | 44.8%438 W · 539 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…cba4backed Blue Otter | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 550 | 45.3%249 W · 301 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4509…58aebacked Conviction | 72c | 143$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 1,082 | 39.5%427 W · 655 L | -78.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Blue Otter | 29c | 141.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…0c86backed Conviction | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +12.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…cf4cbacked Blue Otter | 30c | 134.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 481 | 47.2%227 W · 254 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…2b4fbacked Conviction | 74c | 130.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 521 | 49.9%260 W · 261 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…210ebacked Conviction | 70c | 122.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Blue Otter | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 562 | 28.6%161 W · 401 L | -32.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Blue Otter | 21c | 119.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,939 | 42.2%819 W · 1,120 L | -46.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Conviction | 71c | 108.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1,348 | 47.3%637 W · 711 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Conviction | 73c | 107$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 221 | 58.4%129 W · 92 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Blue Otter | 31c | 106.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1,399 | 44.9%628 W · 771 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Blue Otter | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Conviction | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 793 | 42.1%334 W · 459 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Blue Otter | 29c | 96.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,056 | 50.4%532 W · 524 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Blue Otter | 31c | 94.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 584 | 37.2%217 W · 367 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Conviction | 66c | 90.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Blue Otter | 26c | 84.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 690 | 41.3%285 W · 405 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Blue Otter | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 650 | 43.1%280 W · 370 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Conviction | 71c | 76.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 483 | 57.1%276 W · 207 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Blue Otter | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 889 | 49.6%441 W · 448 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Conviction | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…f8b3backed Conviction | 69c | 72.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Blue Otter | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…985dbacked Conviction | 71c | 63.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Conviction | 70c | 57.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 123 | 61%75 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Blue Otter | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,384 | 31.3%433 W · 951 L | -133.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…bf27backed Conviction | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…2675backed Conviction | 72c | 41.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 337 | 56.1%189 W · 148 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Blue Otter | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 255 | 55.7%142 W · 113 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf4…0e3dbacked Conviction | 68c | 39.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Blue Otter | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Blue Otter | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -52.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Conviction | 66c | 34.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…bcacbacked Conviction | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Blue Otter | 30c | 32.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Conviction | 70c | 31.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 453 | 60.9%276 W · 177 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…8cc4backed Conviction | 73c | 31.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 424 | 50.5%214 W · 210 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Conviction | 71c | 29.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 282 | 60.6%171 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Conviction | 67c | 27.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 343 | 57.1%196 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f8…b412backed Conviction | 70c | 22.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2d…b69dbacked Conviction | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717b…4804backed Conviction | 69c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e6…7c34backed Conviction | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…99b2backed Conviction | 72c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…866bbacked Conviction | 72c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 443 | 54%239 W · 204 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)Blue Otter won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Last Chance QualifierConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 2 WinnerBlue Otter won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.