Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90dee46989eea606c4251ff3243635b2a34497c71d79385a0e776140aa1dd732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 226.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 189.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…6cfebacked Yes | 54c | 184.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 172.81$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 156.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 39c | 127.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 126.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 122.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 65c | 120.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 105.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 74c | 87.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 62c | 84.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 84.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 70c | 76.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 69.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 69.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 73c | 68.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 76c | 65.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 61c | 64.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 59.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 57.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 39c | 51.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 47.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 34c | 47.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 47.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 43.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 67c | 42.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 40.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 36.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3c…6099backed Yes | 55c | 36.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 46c | 33.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 41c | 30.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 49c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…99f9backed Yes | 50c | 27.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.