Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90f33189de341fda14bb4e44bee4274919f8cb60732c3684ce029e1799729c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 36c | 700$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.28 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 51c | 513.91$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.71 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 65c | 410.98$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 35c | 376.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 29c | 331.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 68c | 328.39$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.33 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 211.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 63c | 192.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 36c | 175.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 34c | 174.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 171.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 155.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 153.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 97.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 63c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 64c | 91.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 84.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 79.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 66c | 70.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 59c | 69.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 64c | 55.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 63c | 44.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 44.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 65c | 43.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 42.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 39.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 34c | 39.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…e414backed No | 35c | 37.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 64c | 35.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 65c | 27.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 70c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 58c | 21.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.