MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90f6eacad41e393f5a3800f2f0c9df1d97236f473bd3724a0fb5d5963c4fd7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,197 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 599.99$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 583.79$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.19 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 543.9$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.31 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 493$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 409.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 296.44$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 240.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 220.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 141$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 115.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 101.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 70.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 50.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 44.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 307 | 40.4%124 W · 183 L | -11.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 43.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 31.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…6083backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 23.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…2de3backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.