Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90fe483ef55a3f78b5344aff6371f9fc00ed6cbac04c3ae950061b81cddf3ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 5c | 1,539$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.49 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 5c | 785.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.42 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 9c | 723.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.29 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 6c | 565.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.65 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 5c | 509.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.12 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 43c | 465.84$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 456.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 185.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 185.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 6c | 176.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 8c | 154.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 113.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 109$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 16c | 84.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 76.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 71.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 66.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 20c | 60.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 56.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 41.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 38.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 70c | 36.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…2c0cbacked No | 31c | 32.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.