Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05f8bce23757fe455224bc44c24a57351ac3e318f805bf6105952a11fe2270f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 1,609$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 728.66$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 52c | 720.57$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.42 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 594.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 504.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 457.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 66c | 431.56$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.31 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked No | 75c | 360$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 330.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 316.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 69c | 305.6$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 20c | 293.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 288.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 272.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 21c | 269.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 217.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…c84fbacked No | 74c | 211.07$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 205.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 6c | 166.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 160.74$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 159.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 29c | 155.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 142.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 35c | 138.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 18c | 133.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 33c | 119.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 12c | 119.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 108.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 73c | 106.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 18c | 103.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 48c | 103.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 20c | 101.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 32c | 101.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 95.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 93.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 80c | 93.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked Yes | 25c | 92.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 22c | 89.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 88.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 16c | 79.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 78.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 72.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 25c | 58.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 26c | 55.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 19c | 53.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 50.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 24c | 49.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 48.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 24c | 47.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 45.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 42.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 26c | 41.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 38c | 40.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 40c | 39.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 38.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…83d7backed Yes | 57c | 35.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 34.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 70c | 34.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 33.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 61c | 32.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 29.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 69c | 28.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 76c | 27.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 79c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…af84backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 24.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.