Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51dd4078779c3bb7e552bfbbc3a459f62dab13afa3651b549702ffbdff6ba1b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 1,603$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 721.68$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 490.35$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 48c | 488.92$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 441.89$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 52c | 422.92$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 45c | 372.62$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 38c | 360.3$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 59c | 330$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 77c | 323.57$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 41c | 309.25$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 56c | 293.62$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 291.55$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 279.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 58c | 242.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 62c | 239.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 225$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 60c | 199.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 195$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed No | 56c | 186.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 37c | 186.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 46c | 184.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 56c | 178.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 36c | 172.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 169.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 22c | 168.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 157.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 56c | 149$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 37c | 146.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 71c | 139.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 138.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 137.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 64c | 135.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 133.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 45c | 128.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 123.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 118.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 116.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 61c | 108.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 42c | 107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 106.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 15c | 104.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 43c | 102.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 102.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 100.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…dc9bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 40c | 99.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 33c | 92.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 41c | 91.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 89.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 88.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 87.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 44c | 84.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 84.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 40c | 82.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 81.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 78.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 40c | 75.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 74.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 73.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 71.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 64.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 38c | 59.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 56c | 59.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 48c | 56.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 62c | 56.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 49c | 55.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 53.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 51.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 51c | 50.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 47.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 44.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…a5cabacked No | 63c | 44.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 42.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 42.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 41.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…5234backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 46c | 39.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.