Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6feefdd26316f6a259b6d31bd7c979e69a01a701caa2cffa14306ccf903ce75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 1,827$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 33c | 1,728$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.45 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,422$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 914.93$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 788.7$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 703.14$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 73c | 412.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 394.21$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 20c | 299.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 30c | 298.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 70c | 284.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 26c | 281.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 24c | 252.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 77c | 246.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 239.17$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 218.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 24c | 216.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 193.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 189.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 23c | 186.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 24c | 179.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 23c | 179.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 10c | 174.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 24c | 163.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 76c | 161.1$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 158.42$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 157.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 131.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 30c | 124.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 76c | 119.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 118.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 80c | 113.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 109.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 103.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 28c | 101.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…48bbbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…dc9bbacked Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 25c | 96.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 23c | 95.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 91.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 88.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 74c | 84.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 79.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 79.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 24c | 74.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 69.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…7de1backed Yes | 16c | 69.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 73c | 68.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 23c | 65.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 57.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 57.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 54.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 50.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 48.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 27c | 46.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 45.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 43.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 39.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 38.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 37.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 30c | 36.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 74c | 36.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 32c | 35.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 75c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 31.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 30.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 30.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 29.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 26.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…59bbbacked No | 80c | 24.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…dfb5backed No | 71c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…8456backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 73c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.