Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912600e68fe9c05cc08f6398f741d42d5f6dc69f799e2452c278c90ffb0b1b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 2c | 817.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 19c | 444.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 222.03$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 9c | 203.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 166.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 136.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 10c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 26c | 116.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 113.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 106$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 31c | 81.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 75c | 71.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 67.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 64.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 73c | 51.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 29c | 48.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 32c | 47.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 40.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 73c | 39.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 35.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 28.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…6334backed No | 77c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 74c | 25.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…2ac7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 79c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.