Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8802e4036f9ab9364a77e95b587df5635b7649c047f5475fe4740b8ec800fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 63c | 493.97$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.75 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 259.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 69c | 216.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 54c | 191.16$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 185.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 18c | 172.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 157.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 150.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 131.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 115.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 113.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 52c | 109.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 103.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 101.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 44c | 98.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 20c | 97.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 58c | 92.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 21c | 88.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…ec7bbacked No | 38c | 80.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 79.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 25c | 77.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 68.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 67.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 44c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 64.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 44c | 61.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 61.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 42c | 60.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed No | 20c | 58.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 57.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 58c | 56.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 53.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 49c | 51.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 49.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 42c | 48.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 23c | 47.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 50c | 46.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 57c | 44.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 68c | 41.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 40.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 30c | 35.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 55c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 33.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 42c | 30.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 28.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 28.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…6334backed No | 49c | 26.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…0811backed No | 57c | 25.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 56c | 25.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 25.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 58c | 22.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 21.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…573ebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…63ffbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 73c | 14.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 75c | 14.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.