Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c6629452202af8f225d23e3e4cac3ffe99f6ca34ab5f052d7b2acd6cbef759f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 69c | 389.35$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 262.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 194.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 173.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 151.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 120.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 72c | 116.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 31c | 114.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 99.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 27c | 86.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 25c | 84.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 81.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…577abacked Yes | 28c | 81.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 62.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 62.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…b14abacked Yes | 48c | 61.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 73c | 56.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed No | 78c | 50.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 50.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 49.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 47.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 72c | 46.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 45.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 72c | 42.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…11e1backed Yes | 28c | 39.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 30c | 36.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 74c | 33.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 55c | 32.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 76c | 29.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 28.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 27.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…6334backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…d42fbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…a9a6backed No | 68c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 74c | 13.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.