Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912e10654628d96ba3059221723074a14ca42d9d5e1ba8929176c7259cacf80e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,159$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 888.71$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 716.81$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.13 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 714.64$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 54c | 592.36$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.24 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 499.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.37 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 469.14$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 450.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.29 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 52c | 382.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.83 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 240.61$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 230.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 55c | 225$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 219.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 57c | 219.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 198.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 185.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 175.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 152.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 51c | 147$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 146.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 142.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 57c | 136.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 126.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 28c | 123.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 113.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 103.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 43c | 102.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 102.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 59c | 99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 95.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 86.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 75.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 68c | 70.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 70.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 69.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 58c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 60.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 50c | 57.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 56.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 41c | 54.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 54.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 57c | 52.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 50.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 44c | 47.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 39c | 43.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 29c | 42.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 40.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…85d4backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 54c | 36.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 58c | 34.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 44c | 34.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 34.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 33.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 51c | 31.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 76c | 29.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 42c | 27.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…1eacbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…dc6dbacked No | 58c | 19.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 19.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.