MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9139586d39cb1d982bfaa9f777e92c6a7b369cf3b8db03a3ec3ac13f5415f57a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 53c | 244.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed No | 44c | 147.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 56c | 139$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…13b7backed Yes | 55c | 45.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42a…31d2backed Yes | 52c | 40.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Yes | 54c | 28.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…23fabacked Yes | 52c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…19afbacked Yes | 55c | 26.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked Yes | 55c | 25.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…32dbbacked Yes | 55c | 25.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…093cbacked Yes | 55c | 25.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…7599backed Yes | 53c | 24.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…44c4backed Yes | 55c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c1…6fc2backed Yes | 55c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…cfbcbacked Yes | 53c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…ced7backed Yes | 55c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…77d2backed Yes | 52c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Yes | 52c | 22.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…a945backed Yes | 53c | 22.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…bfefbacked Yes | 55c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed Yes | 55c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…5fe3backed Yes | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…c0a0backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…7854backed Yes | 53c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…c4b1backed Yes | 52c | 21.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Yes | 53c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…18b0backed Yes | 52c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed Yes | 53c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…6ed2backed Yes | 55c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…34f0backed Yes | 53c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3bafbacked Yes | 55c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Yes | 55c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…0f04backed Yes | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…c7edbacked Yes | 55c | 20.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…cffdbacked Yes | 55c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…1e56backed Yes | 55c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 65c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 15.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 17.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 19.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.