MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc22152abaa96b8875db3d772809a6abb32c02c68d8e5dc7ea83918eb9b6a63a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 58c | 206,327$119,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,657.3 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 42c | 182,000$76,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,439.97 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 42c | 13,746$5,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,773.32 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 42c | 8,685$3,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.71 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 6,784$3,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 42c | 6,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.98 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 4,681$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 2,708$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 46c | 2,389$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.74 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.06 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 54c | 1,050$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 58c | 1,023$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.66 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 53c | 1,010$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.7 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 42c | 898.48$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.36 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 766.91$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 46c | 761$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Under | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 667$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 563.65$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 58c | 562$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 57c | 462$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.66 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 42c | 445.14$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 345.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 42c | 300.45$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 58c | 290$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 64c | 288.51$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.97 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Under | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…e81abacked Over | 58c | 251.72$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 42c | 180$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 31c | 149.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 29c | 129$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 32c | 126$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 121.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 119.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 24c | 111.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 41c | 99.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…4a20backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 58c | 69.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 44c | 62.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 57c | 59.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 58c | 54.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 50.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…fe7cbacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 43c | 45.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 56c | 44.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 73c | 36.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed Over | 58c | 29.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 74c | 29.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 56c | 27.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 41c | 26.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 41c | 25.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over | 57c | 25.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e34…7d7cbacked Under | 43c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 58c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f504backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 15.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 17.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 19.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.