Music · resolved market
Will Don’t Be Dumb by A$AP Rocky be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9142d5a2c2f52cfca6ba8deb8528503bcac7a90ad5f6c61e08f1c416e46465da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 18c | 2,292$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.55 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x456d…1fe1backed Yes | 22c | 2,120$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…c96ebacked No | 78c | 2,120$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 20c | 343.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.01 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 22c | 309$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 253.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.94 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 16c | 247$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.66 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 225$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 67c | 215.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed No | 70c | 179.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14bf…7ad5backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…7fb8backed Yes | 22c | 82.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed No | 34c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…5584backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…5631backed No | 69c | 48.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Don’t Be Dumb by A$AP Rocky be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?this page
- Will Before I Forget by The Kid LAROI be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No won
- Will I’m The Problem by Morgan Wallen be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No won
- Will KPop Demon Hunters by Soundtrack be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No won
- Will The Art Of Loving by Olivia Dean be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No won
- Will The Life Of A Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No won
- Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.