Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91479f060a79b7e4a62335107835e1bdeb0e5adbb6748847ab1f174951ea2c4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 29c | 4,917$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.82 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 1,850$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 825.62$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 728.77$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 514.32$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 16c | 423.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.62 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 408$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 367.69$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.75 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 317.18$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 60c | 290.62$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.3 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 49c | 279.31$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 253.43$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 247.52$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 30c | 219.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 35c | 216.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 214$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 21c | 205.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 79c | 190.16$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 181.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 56c | 177.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 174.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 62c | 158.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 48c | 123.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 116.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 113.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 108.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3339…1db6backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 71c | 98.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 24c | 97.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 62c | 96.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 95.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 62c | 86.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 62c | 85.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…144abacked No | 70c | 56.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 51c | 55.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 53.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 48c | 51.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 80c | 47.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 66c | 46.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 64c | 46.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 65c | 45.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…12e9backed Yes | 51c | 43.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 38.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 44c | 37.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 76c | 35.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 32.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 38c | 29.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 29.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 43c | 28.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 25.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 68c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 23.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 22.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 22.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 22.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 52c | 22.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 20.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.