TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes59c1,619$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.2610342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No40c682.81$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.524,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes51c677.8$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c616.7$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes52c604$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.261,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No57c542.29$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.434,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No49c428.13$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.22,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No39c390.36$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1257150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes32c318.95$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8454154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c245$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.174,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No54c211.1$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.32,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No37c198.44$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.024,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No75c188.45$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3939956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No52c187.88$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c184.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes60c176.04$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5213838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes60c170$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No51c154.59$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No57c150.72$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.481,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes51c149.9$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9519345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes20c147.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.578,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes55c145.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.295,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No47c139$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.173,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes55c134.4$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3316733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes25c132$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.453,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes71c120.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85219.5%2 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-79.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No50c112$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9271649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No79c110.8$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.478560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes17c92.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8215630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes38c84.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.371,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No51c83.82$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8355855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No62c83.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No59c81.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.083,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes60c79.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.033,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No35c77.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.941,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes39c61.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9256322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No48c55.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.912,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked Yes60c52.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.319255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1872837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes41c48.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.781,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes40c46.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8129948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe53…99a6backed No39c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.452665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes44c44.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes43c44.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2947136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No46c43.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0411163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c42.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.465,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes36c41.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No46c40.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.042,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c38.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.167,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.822,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c8…4ccabacked No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.363240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c35.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c35.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No50c34.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1776059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No49c33.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.072,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No47c31.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.622,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c30.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.519,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes53c30.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.092147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.942366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.612,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014943.6%65 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No50c29.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.952,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes42c29.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.313,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No47c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7517759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No46c27.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.82,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a26…12e9backed Yes63c26.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x367f…ee28backed No59c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.663148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No46c23.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.525062%31 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No48c22.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.62,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.492761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.281855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No64c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.174,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee3b…f92fbacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.633951.3%20 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.62,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.