MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x914de43bd8ba3811b1de4b4f843da0841d06df4779fcf6a4e06c05678c36eb6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 49c | 10,724$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250.24 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 51c | 5,342$2,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.58 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Yes | 1c | 4,307$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | +14.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +234.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 237 | 57.4%136 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 51c | 580.08$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 52c | 452.83$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.36 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 34c | 291.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…cd1dbacked No | 69c | 290.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Yes | 41c | 256.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +9.4wins | +0.34per pick | 56cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed No | 66c | 253$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +7.1wins | +0.37per pick | 57cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Yes | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…f6d8backed No | 51c | 105.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked No | 67c | 53.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 66 | 78.8%52 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 151 | 51.7%78 W · 73 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 55c | 38.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 52c | 20.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…de94backed No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.