MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc628155633bf0f67263a23a9d34b539eb5a922335e349d34f701d3739b125c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof New York Yankees, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 11,111$4,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,888.84 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Houston Astros | 56c | 10,075$5,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,433.13 | 908 | 46.5%422 W · 486 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed New York Yankees | 23c | 3,304$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.55 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 68c | 2,633$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.69 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,944$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.09 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros | 59c | 887.49$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.46 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Yankees | 41c | 887$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.67 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 25c | 808.01$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.02 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…767fbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 762.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed New York Yankees | 41c | 729.27$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -9.2wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros | 66c | 634.58$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.38 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed New York Yankees | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…0180backed New York Yankees | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed New York Yankees | 43c | 395.35$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 387.02$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed New York Yankees | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 41c | 220$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 40c | 106.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked New York Yankees | 41c | 90.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…6498backed New York Yankees | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked New York Yankees | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 48.3%125 W · 134 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked New York Yankees | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed New York Yankees | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 56.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed New York Yankees | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 441 | 49%216 W · 225 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Houston Astros | 55c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 439 | 51.5%226 W · 213 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.