MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b2b85d82a61b3fe606ada4fe4ebe45b2739017fc6efc3888b8950e8e25a530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 6,936$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,743.92 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 5,785$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.76 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075d…58c1backed Over | 57c | 3,733$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 21c | 2,607$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.29 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 2,273$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.36 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 57c | 2,200$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254 | 464 | 51.1%237 W · 227 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…9362backed Under | 71c | 1,850$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 30c | 1,646$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.93 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 77c | 1,396$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.38 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 928.55$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.05 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 806.13$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.37 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 77c | 491.45$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 474.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 9c | 398.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…acbbbacked Over | 55c | 380$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Over | 14c | 354.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 44c | 291.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 901 | 49.1%442 W · 459 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 76c | 271.87$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 269.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 56c | 255.62$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 239.74$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 202.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Over | 57c | 176.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 18c | 170.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 155$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 45c | 152.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c5c3backed Under | 45c | 149.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Over | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…8501backed Over | 56c | 141.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Over | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Over | 38c | 102.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 27c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…ed50backed Under | 74c | 100.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 96.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 67c | 95.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 749 | 43.4%325 W · 424 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…27c8backed Under | 76c | 85.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 39c | 82.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 889 | 52.8%469 W · 420 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 56c | 78.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Over | 45c | 60.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 56c | 45.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 918 | 48.5%445 W · 473 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 28c | 35.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 52c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 55c | 26.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…dbd6backed Over | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.