MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd7146b3bffd702c32548a48cdba8075cf038e74d98c86600cda58bd113ab33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 8,389$4,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,858.78 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Over | 46c | 4,199$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.64 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…72febacked Over | 50c | 931.38$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.69 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 914.23$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.24 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 72c | 859.73$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.65 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 38c | 741.25$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.05 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 549.13$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.26 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 53c | 503.38$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.59 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 488.5$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 432$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1,855 | 50.6%939 W · 916 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 48c | 419.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 356 | 54.2%193 W · 163 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Under | 80c | 329.95$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 286.35$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 279.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 267.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 47c | 256.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 246.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 232.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Over | 12c | 221.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 8c | 214.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 9c | 192$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 140$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 28c | 129.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 813 | 51.7%420 W · 393 L | +20.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 77c | 118.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 889 | 52.8%469 W · 420 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 75c | 103.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 101.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 16c | 101.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 24c | 100.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,209 | 29%351 W · 858 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 918 | 48.5%445 W · 473 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 718 | 44.3%318 W · 400 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 60.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 901 | 49.1%442 W · 459 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 441 | 49%216 W · 225 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…6d36backed Over | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 28c | 40.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 646 | 53.9%348 W · 298 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 47c | 34.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 126 | 75.4%95 W · 31 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…6498backed Over | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Over | 48c | 24.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 53c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…27c8backed Under | 76c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.