MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35f1c1b273de6a2045ed2b67f20a1354e19a43e04a68e2820c45912a6e545101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 33c | 8,379$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,588.55 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 67c | 6,499$4,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,351.73 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed New York Yankees | 67c | 643.61$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.22 | 533 | 57.6%307 W · 226 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed New York Yankees | 24c | 566.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 76c | 504.26$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 63c | 477.94$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.1 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 34c | 313.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.18 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 299.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 262.48$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.14 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Yankees | 67c | 261.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 34c | 251.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Houston Astros | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 149.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 462 | 58%268 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed New York Yankees | 67c | 149.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 608 | 59.2%360 W · 248 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 91.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 36c | 45.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed New York Yankees | 67c | 44.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed New York Yankees | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Houston Astros | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed New York Yankees | 67c | 34.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked New York Yankees | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Houston Astros | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Yankees | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.