TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, New York Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$329,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$327,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,504 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Yankees42c146,281$61,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,804.771,44949.5%717 W · 732 L-3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros65c58,473$37,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,663.0811,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Houston Astros40c35,059$14,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,035.493353.9%503 W · 430 L+22.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros59c31,230$18,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,928.73,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb399…608ebacked New York Yankees59c25,516$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,000825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros48c20,544$9,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,727.6111,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Houston Astros40c12,128$4,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,276.8763443.5%276 W · 358 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed New York Yankees59c12,118$7,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,149.424153.9%130 W · 111 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed New York Yankees40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Houston Astros40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.9654851.3%281 W · 267 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Yankees33c6,490$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.0398645%444 W · 542 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees59c6,063$3,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,576.963,56251%1,817 W · 1,745 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros60c5,595$3,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,222.958,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Houston Astros40c5,419$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,251.5893446%430 W · 504 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5911…a5a8backed Houston Astros41c5,366$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.852650%13 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…f5e6backed New York Yankees0c5,162$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros44c5,057$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.634,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…89aabacked Houston Astros40c4,584$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,750.657349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees27c3,080$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.134,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros40c3,012$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8074,53449%2,220 W · 2,314 L-41.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Yankees60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80051052.5%268 W · 242 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros62c2,635$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.531,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Houston Astros55c2,522$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.5817442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,69850.2%853 W · 845 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Houston Astros42c2,401$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.745540%22 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ed…bf58backed Houston Astros41c2,270$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked New York Yankees51c2,050$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.6211441.2%47 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Houston Astros40c2,041$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.649245.9%226 W · 266 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros60c1,762$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.118,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked New York Yankees60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00035654.2%193 W · 163 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…1fbebacked New York Yankees60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a3…9e12backed New York Yankees60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.993345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked New York Yankees19c1,411$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.377740.3%31 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbac…38d0backed New York Yankees47c1,329$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.653265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Houston Astros40c1,280$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7681,42048.9%694 W · 726 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Houston Astros40c1,093$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.061,54351.1%789 W · 754 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc15c…6122backed New York Yankees7c1,016$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.736026.7%16 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801,85550.6%939 W · 916 L-6.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb3…04dbbacked New York Yankees61c999.99$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3814…17bcbacked New York Yankees60c900$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5405950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba62…3e29backed New York Yankees60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022649.6%112 W · 114 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees23c815.16$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.478,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked New York Yankees60c800$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4802842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed New York Yankees59c749.95$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.4731752.7%167 W · 150 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros40c710.17$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.11,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b8…36ddbacked New York Yankees60c680$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4081957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked New York Yankees60c666.67$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40024354.7%133 W · 110 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed New York Yankees34c628.72$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.6446058.9%271 W · 189 L+30.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked New York Yankees60c611.93$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.166662.1%41 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Houston Astros40c600$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36031554%170 W · 145 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Houston Astros75c589$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.258650%43 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed New York Yankees12c583.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1858139.4%229 W · 352 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d2…a218backed New York Yankees60c583.33$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3509348.4%45 W · 48 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed New York Yankees31c556.85$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020238.6%78 W · 124 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0af1…1901backed New York Yankees61c554.99$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.547367.1%49 W · 24 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Houston Astros41c536.59$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.5916741.3%69 W · 98 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Houston Astros69c529.68$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.9563347.1%298 W · 335 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees31c507.21$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.584,20150.2%2,109 W · 2,092 L+94.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Houston Astros50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25010936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Houston Astros40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30021837.2%81 W · 137 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros79c500$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.371,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dfe…b081backed New York Yankees41c499.98$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked New York Yankees47c478.72$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520652.4%108 W · 98 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Houston Astros40c438.33$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.3838449%188 W · 196 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Houston Astros51c416.8$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2358560.3%353 W · 232 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Houston Astros60c415.01$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7558058.4%339 W · 241 L+28.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c5…4d7abacked Houston Astros41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab7…6978backed New York Yankees40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16016342.3%69 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed New York Yankees12c391.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0317040%68 W · 102 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed New York Yankees24c391$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6184342.9%362 W · 481 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8e…0a51backed New York Yankees53c375$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees27c370.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.381,97541.3%815 W · 1,160 L-27.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed New York Yankees60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f5…fa54backed New York Yankees41c331.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros56c325.66$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.49,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x262a…cd1dbacked New York Yankees64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Houston Astros41c310$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.915747.1%74 W · 83 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70e9…836abacked New York Yankees18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5422022.7%50 W · 170 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked New York Yankees45c278$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.172053.3%384 W · 336 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…4fc9backed New York Yankees60c273.58$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros71c257.69$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.62,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f9…27c8backed Houston Astros42c252.89$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Houston Astros41c245$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.5592550.1%463 W · 462 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked New York Yankees60c245$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14720052.5%105 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Houston Astros41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.99759.8%58 W · 39 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees38c242.95$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9994456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Houston Astros40c234.38$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.635158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked New York Yankees60c230$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13859452.9%314 W · 280 L+2.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed New York Yankees39c219.98$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7928530.9%88 W · 197 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9237…9c99backed New York Yankees60c216.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked New York Yankees44c213.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1963648.9%311 W · 325 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Houston Astros59c207$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.131,53459.5%912 W · 622 L+83.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros41c205$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.953,32046.2%1,535 W · 1,785 L+22.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Houston Astros40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12016448.2%79 W · 85 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a4…3c66backed New York Yankees60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Houston Astros49c199.55$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.832245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked New York Yankees60c190.8$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.487656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Houston Astros49c189.03$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0235748.5%173 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Houston Astros73c185.06$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8916739.5%66 W · 101 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked New York Yankees54c184.26$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.522931.4%72 W · 157 L-1.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.